Newcomb's problem
Mar. 13th, 2026 10:47 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
nzAn interesting problem in a recent Veritasium video:
Unfortunately, they kinda fucked up the explanation.
It has nothing to do with probabilities.
The decision has already been made, the million is either there or not.
Nothing you can do or not do can influence the outcome in any way whatsoever.
So, rationally and logically, you have to take both and get either (1m+1k or 1k) instead of (1m or 0).
Taking both boxes is always better for you.
Having said that, the robot has to expect you to take one box for the million to be there in the first place.
By taking two you improve your own position a bit, but influence the robot towards predicting two and leaving the box empty in the future.
A small personal gain at the expense of future generations.
You might even think it's the tragedy of commons from a different angle.
Except no, of course it's not.
Money doesn't work like that and strange robots lying in rooms distributing millions is no basis for a system of economy.
Giving random idiots 1m each would inevitably inflate prices, eventually causing a cup of coffee to cost 1m, making it worse for everyone, including you.
Economy-wise, it is your sacred duty to pull up the ladder and skew the prediction towards 0 for the greater good.
Take what you can, give nothing back, as them pirates say.
Ah, and take the robot too of course. It's also a box after all, and with pricey RAM in it!
Unfortunately, they kinda fucked up the explanation.
It has nothing to do with probabilities.
The decision has already been made, the million is either there or not.
Nothing you can do or not do can influence the outcome in any way whatsoever.
So, rationally and logically, you have to take both and get either (1m+1k or 1k) instead of (1m or 0).
Taking both boxes is always better for you.
Having said that, the robot has to expect you to take one box for the million to be there in the first place.
By taking two you improve your own position a bit, but influence the robot towards predicting two and leaving the box empty in the future.
A small personal gain at the expense of future generations.
You might even think it's the tragedy of commons from a different angle.
Except no, of course it's not.
Money doesn't work like that and strange robots lying in rooms distributing millions is no basis for a system of economy.
Giving random idiots 1m each would inevitably inflate prices, eventually causing a cup of coffee to cost 1m, making it worse for everyone, including you.
Economy-wise, it is your sacred duty to pull up the ladder and skew the prediction towards 0 for the greater good.
Take what you can, give nothing back, as them pirates say.
Ah, and take the robot too of course. It's also a box after all, and with pricey RAM in it!
